TA: MACD(12,26,9): Daily: Still holding a bullish signal from the cross on 7/9/2018. However the MACD line is showing a slight curve downward towards the signal line, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a short-term bear signal in the coming week. Weekly:: This indicator is still implying bullish movement, SPX should be fine in the intermediate term.
RSI: Daily: Indicator hit overbought @70.45 on 7/25 and has since fallen to a more comfortable level at ~58.
Weekly: Is still showing gaining momentum on the buy side, making new highs at ~62.
Trendlines: SPX has held true to the channel created last week, touching the top trendline and consolidating after less than attractive earnings reports. The .786 Fib line seems to be very important here.
Moving Averages: All are still in a bullish order, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see SPX experience some recession down to the 20 day or even the 50 day moving average.
Tech earnings have been less than stellar , even though XLK is accounting for a vast majority of SPX gain this year. FB , NFLX , and TWTR down big on earning’s, while GOOG and AMZN continue to exceed expectations. AAPL is reporting on Tuesday, this will be very influential on markets as it always is. ( Apple , Amazon, Alphabet , Microsoft , and Facebook currently make up 14% of the S and P)
US GDP hit 4.1% (after taking 3% inflation into account) for Q2, most likely due to tax cuts encouraging corporate spending on equipment hitting 9.41% growth, the highest in 6 years. This still wasn’t enough to significantly affect markets as the focus seems to be on corporate earnings . Forecast growth for 2018 is still around 3%.
Trade policy is still a huge thorn in our sides, as this huge shift in GDP growth will most likely lend more confidence to Trump and his push on the trade deficit.
3 Month: 2.00%
6 Month: 2.20%
1 Year: 2.43%
5 Year: 2.84%
10 Year: 2.96%
30 Year: 3.09%
Some I’m watching this week
CAT, CHGG, INST, SCI , PFE , IPGP , CS , AAPL , PAYC , FISV , VRSK , NOA, IDXX , TSLA , SQ , FEYE , EXEL , FTNT , CI , VAC, MSCI , DATA, ATVI , CBOE